The upcoming El Nino and further events and developments

[ from earlier post ]

Very threatening is a rise in methane that kept following the trend depicted in the above image, created with WMO 2015-2021 global annual surface mean methane abundances, with an added trend that points at a potential mean global abundance of methane of more than 700 ppm (parts per million) CO₂e by the end of 2026. The image warns that, if such a trend kept continuing, the clouds tipping point could be crossed as a result of the forcing of methane alone.

Further events and developments that could speed up the temperature rise

The rise in methane is alarming and further greenhouse gases also keep rising, such as nitrous oxide, water vapor and carbon dioxide, due to high emissions by people and due to feedbacks that are kicking in, such as forest and waste fires, flooding and further extreme weather events, permafrost loss in the Arctic and reduced carbon sinks. Furthermore, maximum warming occurs about one decade after a carbon dioxide emission, so the full warming wrath of the carbon dioxide emitted over the past decade is still to come, and an extra 0.5°C rise by 2026 seems possible due to carbon dioxide alone.

[ see the Extinction page ]

As an earlier post mentions, the upcoming temperature rise on land on the Northern Hemisphere could be so high that it will cause much traffic, transport and industrial activity to grind to a halt, resulting in a reduction in aerosols that are currently masking the full wrath of global warming.

The post points at a recent analysis that finds a stronger impact than previously thought for liquid water path adjustment, which supports the 2016 warning that by 2026 there could be a 1.9°C temperature rise due to a decrease in cooling aerosols, while there could be additionally be a 0.6°C temperature rise due to an increase in warming aerosols and gases as a result of more biomass and waste burning and forest fires by 2026.