by WCWadmin | Jun 23, 2023 | Science, World Health
Introduction:
The Arctic region plays a critical role in the Earth’s climate system, with its sea ice acting as a vital component. However, in recent years, the Arctic sea ice has been facing significant challenges due to various factors linked to climate change. This update sheds light on the current state of Arctic sea ice and the implications for the environment and global health.
The World daily 2-meter Air Temperature (90-90°N, 0-360°E)
The World daily 2-meter Air Temperature (90-90°N, 0-360°E) was 16.77°C on June 9, 2023, an anomaly of 0.9°C for that day. The highest temperature on record is 16.92°C, and it was reached on August 14, 2016, and the anomaly for that day was only 0.75°C.
The record high of 16.92° actually was a tie between August 13, 2016, August 14, 2016, and July 24, 2022. That latter date is important, since the record high temperature was reached even while there was a strong La Niña, suppressing the temperature. This time, we’re in an El Niño, so we can expect even higher temperatures over the next few weeks.
The highest anomaly on record was reached on February 28, 2016, when there was a strong El Niño and the anomaly was 1.15°C. Note that these anomalies are compared to the mean temperature for that day in NOAA’s NCEP CFSv2.
The above image, from an
earlier post, uses monthly NASA Land+Ocean temperature anomalies
versus 1886-1915 that are further adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect ocean air temperatures, higher polar anomalies and a
pre-industral base.
Sea surface temperature on the North Atlanti
The above image shows sea surface temperature on the North Atlantic (0-60°N, 0-80°W) depicted as anomalies, reaching about 1.1°C above the 1982-2023 mean on June 10, 2023.
The situation is especially critical in the North Atlantic, as vast amounts of ocean heat in the North Atlantic are moving toward the Arctic, threatening to cause rapid melting of Arctic sea ice and thawing of permafrost.
North Atlantic (0-60°N, 0-80°W) reaching 22.7°C
The above image shows the same data for sea surface temperature on the North Atlantic (0-60°N, 0-80°W) reaching 22.7°C on June 10, 2023 (on the black line), 0.7°C higher than the 22.0°C on June 10, 2022 (on the orange line).
The comparison with 2022 is important, as the North Atlantic sea surface temperature reached a record 24.9°C on Sept. 4, 2022, even while there was a strong La Niña, suppressing the temperature. This time, we have an El Niño, as illustrated by the
NOAA image on the right.
The annual Arctic sea ice extent minimum is typically reached in September and the North Atlantic sea surface temperature is critical in regard to melting of the Arctic sea ice. The already high sea surface temperature together with the impact of the El Niño make the outlook for Arctic sea ice for September 2023 look grim.
Sea ice concentration is getting lower in many places and there is open water off the Siberian coast and in parts of the Beaufort Sea and Baffin Bay, as illustrated by the Uni of Bremen image on the right. Rising temperatures in the Arctic threaten to trigger massive loss of Arctic sea ice over the coming months.
The image on the right, from
polarportal.dk, shows very low Arctic sea ice volume for the time of year on June 8, 2023, already much lower than the volume on the same date for any of the four previous years.
The
NASA Worldview satellite image below shows Arctic sea ice in a very vulnerable state on June 11, 2023, even very close to the North Pole (on the left of the image below). Open water is also visible near the Franz Jozef Archipelago, some 1000 km from the North Pole (on the right of the image below).
The NASA satellite image on the right provides a closer look at the sea ice near the North Pole on June 12, 2023 (click on images to enlarge).
As discussed in earlier posts such as
this one, conditions are dire:
• Earth’s energy imbalance is at record high
• emissions are at record high
• greenhouse gas concentrations are at record high
• temperatures are very high, especially in the Arctic
• North Atlantic sea surface temperature is at record high
• sea ice is very vulnerable
• the Jet Stream is strongly deformed, threatening to cause:
• hot water from rivers entering the Arctic Ocean, and with
• storms pushing hot water into the Arctic Ocean
On the one hand, it’s terrible to see open water close to the North Pole so early in the year, yet on the other hand, this may enable ocean heat to escape to the atmosphere and thus delay eruption of seafloor methane (image further below).
The image on the right, from the Uni of Bremen, shows Arctic sea ice thickness on June 12, 2023.
The image below shows the extent of the deformation of the Jet Stream on June 6, 2023. No less than 26 circular wind patterns (at 250 hPa) are marked on the image, which also shows sea surface temperature anomalies. The Jet Stream is can also be seen crossing the Equator at the bottom of the image.
“The melting of Arctic sea ice not only affects the environment but also poses significant risks to human health, including mental health challenges, infectious diseases, and limited access to healthcare services.”
Furthermore, there are
circumstances that could coincide in a cataclysmic alignment: El Niño is on the way, sunspots are higher than predicted and the Tonga submarine volcano did add large amounts of water vapor high into the atmosphere.
All this looks set to jointly result in massive loss of Arctic sea ice over the coming months, with loss of the latent heat buffer and loss of albedo threatening to trigger eruption of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as has been described many times before, such as in this post, in this post and in this post.
Both loss of Arctic sea ice and eruption of seafloor methane constitute tipping points that threaten to abruptly accelerate the temperature rise in the Arctic, thus also accelerating loss of permafrost in Siberia and North America that threatens to trigger further releases of greenhouse gases.
In addition, there are further events and developments that could unfold and make things even worse.
The upcoming temperature rise on land on the Northern Hemisphere could be of such a severity that much traffic, transport and industrial activity will grind to a halt, resulting in a reduction in cooling aerosols that are now masking the full wrath of global heating. Without these cooling aerosols, the temperature is projected to rise strongly, while there could be an additional temperature rise due to an increase in warming aerosols and gases as a result of more biomass and waste burning and forest fires. Furthermore, as traffic slows down, there will be less nitrogen oxide emissions, which could result in less hydroxyl to curtail methane.
The bar on the right depicts the threat, as discussed at the Extinction page.
In conclusion, the situation is dire and calls for support for a Climate Emergency Declaration.
In the video below, Jim Massa is interviewed by Sandy Schoelles about the changes taking place in the oceans.
Links
• Climate Reanalyzer – World Daily 2-meter Air Temperature (90-90°N, 0-360°E)
• NOAA – The National Centers for Environment Prediction Climate Forecast System Version 2
• Humans may be extinct in 2026
• NASA – GISS Surface Temperature Analysis
• Pre-industrial
• WTF is Happening? An Overview – by Eliot Jacobson
by WCWadmin | Jun 19, 2023 | Science
The Arctic Ocean is experiencing alarming signs of overheating, raising concerns among scientists and environmentalists. This phenomenon, attributed to climate change, has significant implications for the delicate Arctic ecosystem and global climate patterns. Studies and research have shown that the Arctic region is warming at a faster rate compared to the rest of the planet.
Rising temperatures have led to the loss of sea ice, which acts as a reflective surface, bouncing back solar radiation into space. With less ice cover, more sunlight is absorbed by the dark ocean waters, causing further warming and creating a feedback loop. The consequences of the Arctic Ocean overheating are far-reaching.
The melting of sea ice affects wildlife habitats and disrupts the delicate balance of Arctic ecosystems. Species such as polar bears, walruses, and seals rely on ice for hunting, resting, and raising their young. As ice diminishes, their survival becomes increasingly challenging.
The warming of the Arctic Ocean also impacts global climate patterns. The Arctic plays a crucial role in regulating Earth’s climate system, influencing ocean currents, weather patterns, and atmospheric circulation. Changes in the Arctic can have cascading effects, leading to altered weather conditions in other regions of the world.
Arctic sea ice extent was 10.31 million km² on December 4, 2022. At this time of year, extent was smaller only in two years, i.e. in 2016 and 2020, both strong El Niño years. With the next El Niño, Arctic sea ice extent looks set to reach record lows.
The NOAA image on the right indicates that, while we’re still in the depths of a persistent La Niña, the next El Niño looks set to strike soon.
The image below shows high sea surface temperature anomalies near the Bering Strait on December 2, 2022, with a “hot blob” in the North Pacific Ocean where sea surface temperature anomalies are reaching as high as 7°C or 12.6°F from 1981-2011. The Jet Stream is stretched out vertically from pole to pole, enabling hot air to enter the Arctic from the Pacific Ocean and from the Atlantic Ocean.
The image below shows a forecast for December 5, 2022, of 2m temperature anomalies versus 1979-2000, with anomalies over parts of the Arctic Ocean near the top end of the scale.
On December 6, 2022, the Arctic was 6.63°C or 11.93°F warmer compared to 1979-2000, as illustrated by the image below.
The image below shows the daily average Arctic air temperature (2m) from 1979 up to December 6, 2022.
Given that we’re still in the depth of a persistent La Niña, these currently very high air temperature anomalies indicate that ocean temperatures are very high and that ocean heat is heating up the air over the Arctic.
Additionally, ocean heat is melting the sea ice from below.Accordingly, Arctic sea ice has barely increased in thickness over the past 30 days, as illustrated by the
navy.mil animation on the right.
This leaves only a very short time for Arctic sea ice to grow back in thickness before the melting season starts again, which means that there will be little or no latent heat buffer to consume heat when the melting season starts.
Furthermore, rising temperatures and changes to the Jet Stream contribute to formation of a freshwater lid at the sea surface at higher latitudes, resulting in further heating up of the Arctic Ocean.
As a result, more heat threatens to penetrate sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean that contain vast amounts of methane in hydrates and free gas, and result in abrupt release of huge amounts of methane, dramatically pushing up temperatures globally.
The situation is dire and the right thing to do now is to help avoid or delay the worst from happening, through action as described in the Climate Plan.
Links
• Vishop sea ice extent
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
• NOAA ENSO: Recent Evolution,
Current Status and Predictions
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
• nullschool.net
https://earth.nullschool.net
• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org
• Naval Research Laboratory – HYCOM Consortium for Data-Assimilative Ocean Modeling
https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/arctic.html
• Albedo, latent heat, insolation and more
• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic
