‘A Job That No One Sees’

The Unsung Heroes of Child Care: Family, Friend, and Neighbor (FFN) Caregivers

In 2000, Sara Martinez — who immigrated from El Salvador to Los Angeles and was then a stay-at-home mother of three — was asked for a favor. Her neighbor, a home-based child care provider, needed support caring for the seven children she served because her husband had suddenly fallen ill. Martinez, 29 years old at the time, agreed to help. She initially volunteered for an hour each week, then two, then three. She assisted for a few days a week until she moved to another neighborhood in 2005.

Martinez never asked to be compensated. In her eyes, after all, it was just a favor. Yet, this “favor” spurred two decades of child care that Martinez provided for families in her community in South Central Los Angeles.

Martinez is one of the estimated millions of child care providers known as family, friend and neighbor (FFN) caregivers, which represents the most common type of non-parental child care in the United States. In these popular arrangements — which can range from a few hours a day to full-time — a relative, friend or neighbor provides informal child care in the home of the child or the caregiver.

While FFNs are the largest group of caregivers in the country, it is a job that many in the field refer to as “invisible” in the already historically overlooked child care workforce. That’s reflected by the minimal resources allocated to FFNs throughout the country.

Amplifying the Voices of Family, Friend, and Neighbor (FFN) Child Care Providers: Uncovering Stories of Resilience and Advocacy

There are so many stories like Martinez’s. In fact, when my own mother immigrated to Los Angeles from Mexico at 17 years old, one of her first jobs was in child care. As a child, I often heard her share tales from her time caring for children. I was born and raised in South Central Los Angeles, in a predominantly Black and Latino neighborhood with many low-income families. These informal child care arrangements surrounded me.

The stories of family, friend and neighbor providers — women like Martinez and my mother — need to be heard. They have the power to shift public narrative and to inspire action.

Deeply interested in the experiences of FFN child care providers and the accessibility of resources for their work, I developed a research project as part of my undergraduate studies at Harvard University. I interviewed five women — all Central American immigrants based in California — to understand their work with children and families and their access to resources. I conducted the interviews in Spanish, and with support from Early Edge California, I paid each participant a stipend for their time.

Unveiling the Strength and Struggles of Family, Friend, and Neighbor (FFN) Child Care Providers: Nurturing Communities Amidst Inequality

My mother’s community ties helped connect me to three of the five women I interviewed, and I’m honored to be able to share their vibrant stories, which show how FFN care is critical for the child care ecosystem, the general workforce and the children and families they serve.

While each provider’s journey is unique, there are some shared facets of the FFN experience. All of the women I interviewed, for example, were motivated to provide child care by a commitment toward their own families and the children in their communities. These women have all struggled with poor compensation, and they all recognize that the parents they serve cannot afford to pay them more. They were also astutely aware that their work is not only financially, but socially, devalued.

The stories of these providers — women like Martinez and my mother — need to be heard. They have the power to shift public narrative and to inspire action.

The profiles below present the experiences of three of the FFN providers as they shared them with me in their interviews. They’ve been translated to English, lightly edited and condensed for clarity, and assembled with anecdotal information based on my field notes.

Teresa Mendez

Sara martinez 1685634814 | ‘a job that no one sees’ | in the vast landscape of global health, there are individuals who tirelessly work behind the scenes, their contributions often unnoticed and underappreciated. These unsung heroes play critical roles in shaping the field, making invaluable contributions to public health. | wellcare world | healthcare

Connections are everything in the world of FFN care. My mother connected me to Teresa Mendez, whom she met when their youngest daughters attended the local elementary school. Mendez immigrated to Los Angeles from El Salvador at 25 years old, a single mother with three children. She worked various jobs in the service industry until 2013, when Mendez suffered a work-related injury that left her with a physical disability. She focused on her recovery for two years. When she wished to return to the workforce, she struggled to find a job — but as a single mother, being unemployed wasn’t an option.

In 2019, Mendez met a mother at her youngest daughter’s school who needed full-time child care for her 3-year-old daughter and after-school care for her 6-year-old daughter. “I like caring for children. And I needed money,” Mendez recalled. She was offered $100 per week. “The mother earned very little, so she paid me very little. But I settled … because, in the past, I have needed to pay a babysitter. I know how hard it can be to afford it.” Mendez earned about $2.63 per hour to care for the two girls.

Every weekday at 8 a.m., Mendez met the mother at the school their daughters attended and took the toddler home with her. After feeding her breakfast, she gave her toys from her own children’s stash to play with and took her to the local park. After lunch, Mendez strapped the child in a stroller to pick up her sister (and Mendez’s own daughter). With three girls to feed and bathe, Mendez was kept occupied until the girls’ mother arrived in the evening to take them home.

The work was manageable but, to Mendez’s dismay, it was put on hold because of the pandemic. The mother wasn’t comfortable with the health risk.

Mendez eventually found work at a furniture workshop, where she works today. With a stable job, she thought it was the end of her days caring for children.

Last spring, two of Mendez’s children — now adults and parents themselves — asked her for a favor. Her daughter needed someone to sporadically look after her children, 1 and 3 years old. Meanwhile, her son needed care for his infant and toddler from 9:30 a.m. to 3:30 p.m. during the four days a week he worked. Despite having a full-time job at the workshop, Mendez agreed to care for her grandchildren. While her daughter doesn’t regularly compensate her, since the arrangement is considered an occasional favor, Mendez’s son pays her $300 biweekly, which comes to about $6.25 per hour. He also provides Mendez with groceries, such as eggs, milk and yogurt, to help cover his children’s meals.

During our interview, Mendez invited me to spend a morning with her. I visited on a day when she was scheduled to work at the furniture shop. Mendez opened the workshop at 9 a.m., cleaning the space and setting up makeshift beds for napping later in the day. Thirty minutes later, Mendez’s son arrived carrying a portable car seat with a wide-eyed baby, while an energetic toddler bustled into the space. Reassured by her son that the baby’s diaper was freshly changed, Mendez reached out to take the infant.

I asked Mendez how she managed to work the furniture store and take care of her grandchildren. “During the day, I am usually just taking calls or waiting for clients. If I have things to do at the desk, I do them before or after the children leave,” Mendez explained. “And I’m in luck. These two are like their father, very calm.”

Plus, she added, “For me, it is not difficult because I have previous experience with child care.”

Experience helps, but so do resources. When asked what additional support could help providers, her answer was candid.

“Funds. Aid. What I am most lacking is money,” she said.

She was unaware of licensing programs and courses, but she said that training would also be helpful.

“People take care of children, but there’s no recognition of their work. It is a job that no one sees.” -Teresa Mendez

Above all, Mendez wished that child care was recognized for the labor it is.

“People take care of children, but there’s no recognition of their work. It is a job that no one sees,” she said.

Nataly Romero

Nataly Romero is an FFN whose tie to my mother is close to home — they’re neighbors. Whenever I am home, I see Romero running in and out of her apartment with a tiny toddler in her arms, her great niece whom she cares for.

At 6 years old, Romero immigrated to Los Angeles from Mexico with her parents and siblings. Raised in the city, she graduated high school and had her first child soon after. She had a brief stint in retail work, but she primarily dedicated herself to raising her children while her husband worked.

In 2010, her older sister was looking for after-school care for her son and daughter, and Romero offered to look after them until her sister found a permanent solution. Four days a week, she took care of her niece and nephew in the afternoons, along with her own three children, until her sister picked them up around 7:30 p.m.

At first, Romero did this as a favor. But the costs of food and activities added up. After three months, Romero decided to charge her sister, who offered her $200 biweekly, which came out to about $3.13 per hour. Romero knew that her compensation was not what it should be. “I did it for the kids, not really because she paid me,” she reflected. After four years, Romero decided the compensation was insufficient and stopped caring for her sister’s children. Then she vowed that she’d never provide child care again. “It was way too much responsibility. It is too much work and very poorly paid,” she said.

Romero went on to work for an agency for about a decade. But in early 2022, after leaving the agency, her nephew — now an adult — called her, frantic. His partner, who works at the local community clinic, had contracted COVID-19, and they were worried about his 2-year-old daughter becoming infected.

While her niece recovered, Romero took care of her great-niece, Melanie. This one-time favor soon turned into a full-time job. The couple saw how comfortable Melanie was with Romero, and asked her to care for Melanie regularly. They offered her $300 biweekly to take care of Melanie from 7:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. on weekdays — a similar wage to what her sister once paid her, yet Romero accepted. After all, this was family.

Romero still cares for Melanie, now 4 years old, after school. She recently took on a night shift as a janitor in a local gym to supplement her income. Like Mendez, Romero must work an additional job on top of child care to make ends meet. But she’s motivated to provide trusted, safe child care for her family.

Sara Martinez

Teresa mendez 1685634662 | ‘a job that no one sees’ | in the vast landscape of global health, there are individuals who tirelessly work behind the scenes, their contributions often unnoticed and underappreciated. These unsung heroes play critical roles in shaping the field, making invaluable contributions to public health. | wellcare world | healthcare

Sara Martinez, the child care provider introduced at the beginning of this story, found herself picking up right where she left off when she moved to a new neighborhood in 2005. She was approached by a new neighbor — a young single mother who needed full-time care for her 6-month-old infant and 4-year-old toddler. At that point, Martinez had four of her own children — an infant and a 4-, 7- and 14-year-old.

This time, Martinez was paid $100 a week, which, depending on the length of the day, came to about $2 an hour for both children. When the mother could no longer afford to pay, Martinez continued caring for the children.

Mornings were busy for Martinez, navigating multiple school drop-offs and managing the two babies. However, the most difficult part of Martinez’s days, she recalled, were the early afternoons, when she took the babies to the local preschool to pick up her daughter and the eldest child she cared for.

“I had two strollers that I tied together, creating a makeshift double stroller,” Martinez shared with a small laugh. “And I had their siblings holding onto either side of the stroller on the walk home.” Martinez returned home for a short time before preparing to venture out again, this time to pick up her 7-year-old.

A few years later, Martinez moved again to another local neighborhood, where she continued her work. She soon met a local pregnant mother who wanted to hire her to care for her son when he was born. “I was so excited. I felt as if I [would be] raising another baby,” Martinez recalled.

For six years, Martinez cared for the child, named Roger, from 7:30 a.m. until 3 p.m. every weekday. At $100 per week, Martinez was earning approximately $2.66 per hour. When Roger’s sister was born, Martinez cared for her as well and the children’s mother increased Martinez’s compensation to $250 per week, or about $5.88 per hour.

In December 2019, Martinez took on a short-term job caring for a neighbor’s two elementary-aged children over winter break while school was closed. In March 2020, with schools across the country shifting to online learning due to the pandemic, that neighbor was again left without child care for her two daughters, so Martinez took them in. At the height of the pandemic, she had seven children in her apartment daily: her own three children, Roger and his sister, and her neighbor’s two daughters.

“I had my son in my room, and my daughter on the balcony. Roger sat by the door in a small space by the stairs. The eldest of the other girls was in my daughter’s room, and the younger two were with me in the living room,” Martinez explains. “I would walk around, checking to make sure they were all logged onto class. For lunch, I would have the children I cared for eat first at the table. Then my children and I would eat.”

This pandemic period felt harder and more expensive for Martinez. She and the children wore masks. She cleaned surfaces as often as possible, keeping the windows open for ventilation. She played teacher as best she could when the school-aged children had asynchronous assignments. Her limited English proficiency presented challenges, but she relied on her own older children to help the younger ones she cared for.

Martinez continued caring for these children through the summer and the beginning of the following school year, when they were still learning remotely.

“It was difficult,” she said, “but I needed the money.”

In October 2020, after about two decades as a child care provider, Martinez made a difficult decision. She alerted the mothers of both pairs of siblings that she could no longer provide them with child care. She had recently divorced her husband, and the compensation she received from child care was not enough to sustain basic needs for herself and her own children. She has since transitioned to a service industry job that, at slightly above California’s minimum wage of $15.50, is approximately three times what she earned at the peak of her time as a child care worker.

Those who care for children do not earn much because parents who earn $15 an hour cannot afford to give much.

—Sara Martinez

“I never blamed the mothers,” Martinez emphasized when discussing her decision to stop providing care. “Those who care for children do not earn much because parents who earn $15 an hour cannot afford to give much.”

Martinez loved caring for children and during our interview, she had tears in her eyes as she reminisced about the pain she felt leaving two families scrambling when she had to take on a new job.

But love wasn’t enough. The low wages were no longer sustainable.

Family, Friend and Neighbor Providers Deserve Better

To support FFNs, advocates, policymakers and researchers must consider the challenges they face. Like the women interviewed for this project, FFNs are predominantly women and half are people of color. They are disproportionately likely to be immigrants and have limited English speaking proficiency. Systems of inequality can compound to amplify the barriers experienced by FFNs in their work and daily lives.

Economic precarity was evident for the women I interviewed. Each earned only a few dollars an hour for their work, low wages that illustrate the blatant economic injustice they’ve experienced. Natalie Renew, executive director of Home Grown, a national initiative that works with home-based child care providers around the country, unpacked the financial and social devaluing of FFN providers because of their background in a recent interview with me.

“FFNs serve their communities, which are often low-income. Families can’t afford to pay them. Meanwhile, the child care system does not trust Black and Latinx families to select appropriate caregivers, and then they don’t trust the caregivers themselves. The system does not value nor resource these communities, and the lack of a consistent, institutional pathway to get resources to FFNs in ways that are meaningful to them creates a need for triage.”

The experiences of FFNs diverge based on whether they’ve received the “triage” Renew mentions. A lack of long-term mechanisms that provide reliable resources to FFNs creates a need for local organizations to support communities.

The majority of FFNs, including Mendez, Romero and Martinez, do not have access to resources such as funding, training or materials to support them in their work. In fact, these three women had never heard the term Family, Friend and Neighbor child care provider.

However, two of the women I interviewed were connected with trusted local networks and received resources that helped them perform their role to the best of their ability. For more about how connecting FFNs with resources can make a difference, read part two of this story.

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Dire situation gets even more dire

Introduction:

The in health demands immediate attention and concerted efforts from various stakeholders. The landscape is plagued by numerous challenges, including infectious diseases, non-communicable diseases, inequalities, and societal determinants that significantly impact health outcomes. In this article, we will explore the complexity of the situation and discuss potential solutions to address the pressing issues.

“The dire situation in health reminds us of the urgent need for collective action and unwavering commitment to improve the well-being of all individuals.”

Understanding the Complexity:

A. Global Health Challenges: The dire situation in health is compounded by global health challenges. The prevalence of infectious diseases, such as COVID-19, Ebola, and malaria, continues to pose significant threats to populations worldwide. Additionally, non-communicable diseases like cardiovascular diseases, cancer, and diabetes contribute to the burden of illness. Addressing these challenges requires robust healthcare systems, adequate resources, and a comprehensive approach to prevention, treatment, and control.

Research Community:

The research community contributes significantly to understanding and finding solutions to health challenges. Ongoing scientific studies and advancements in medical research provide critical insights into disease prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. Collaborative research efforts, knowledge sharing, and funding support are key to accelerating progress and finding innovative solutions to combat the dire situation.

Innovative Solutions and Developments:

Technological Advancements: Technology plays a pivotal role in transforming healthcare delivery and improving health outcomes. Telemedicine, remote monitoring, and digital health records enable accessible and efficient healthcare services, especially in underserved areas. Artificial intelligence (AI) and data analytics help enhance disease surveillance, diagnostics, and treatment planning, leading to more targeted interventions and improved patient care.

Vaccination Campaigns: Vaccination programs are instrumental in preventing and controlling infectious diseases. Widespread immunization campaigns, coupled with public education and awareness, are vital to achieving herd immunity and protecting communities from outbreaks. Continued investment in research and development of vaccines is essential to stay ahead of emerging health threats.

Prioritizing Wellness and Well-being:

Mental Health Support: The dire situation in health takes a toll on mental well-being. The stress, fear, and uncertainty associated with health crises can lead to increased rates of anxiety, depression, and other mental health disorders. It is crucial to prioritize mental health support, providing access to counseling services, psychological interventions, and resources to help individuals cope with the challenges they face.

Healthy Lifestyle Practices: Promoting healthy lifestyle practices is key to preventing and managing various health conditions. Encouraging regular physical exercise, balanced nutrition, and adequate sleep can strengthen individuals’ immune systems and improve overall well-being. Education on preventive

“Health is not just the absence of illness, but a state of complete physical, mental, and social well-being.” – World Health Organization

Antarctic sea ice extent was 1.788 million km² on February 21, 2023, an all-time low in the NSIDC record.

Feb 21 2023 2 | dire situation gets even more dire | the dire situation that we face in the realm of health is becoming even more severe. With each passing day, the challenges and complexities continue to mount, requiring immediate attention and action. The urgency of the situation cannot be overstated as lives are at stake and the well-being of individuals and communities hangs in the balance. | wellcare world | healthcare
 
Antarctic sea ice area was 1,050,708 km² on February 22, 2023, as illustrated by the Nico Sun image below.
 
Feb 22 2023 | dire situation gets even more dire | the dire situation that we face in the realm of health is becoming even more severe. With each passing day, the challenges and complexities continue to mount, requiring immediate attention and action. The urgency of the situation cannot be overstated as lives are at stake and the well-being of individuals and communities hangs in the balance. | wellcare world | healthcare
 
This means that a huge amount of heat that was previously reflected back into space by the sea ice is now instead absorbed by the Southern Ocean, in a self-reinforcing feedback loop that results in further sea ice loss, in turn further speeding up the temperature rise and making the weather ever more extreme.
 
Feb 19 2023 4 | dire situation gets even more dire | the dire situation that we face in the realm of health is becoming even more severe. With each passing day, the challenges and complexities continue to mount, requiring immediate attention and action. The urgency of the situation cannot be overstated as lives are at stake and the well-being of individuals and communities hangs in the balance. | wellcare world | healthcare
Arctic sea ice extent was 14,271,000 km² on February 19, 2023, the third-lowest extent in the NSIDC record for the time of year, as illustrated by the above image.
 
Feb 11 2023 3 | dire situation gets even more dire | the dire situation that we face in the realm of health is becoming even more severe. With each passing day, the challenges and complexities continue to mount, requiring immediate attention and action. The urgency of the situation cannot be overstated as lives are at stake and the well-being of individuals and communities hangs in the balance. | wellcare world | healthcare
 
Global sea ice extent reached a record low of 15,500,000 km² on February 11, 2023, as illustrated by the above image.
 
The situation is dire

The dire situation is further illustrated by the image below, showing high sea surface temperature anomalies (from 1981-2011) over the Southern Ocean, the Atlantic ocean and the Arctic Ocean on February 19, 2023. 

Feb 19 2023 ssta | dire situation gets even more dire | the dire situation that we face in the realm of health is becoming even more severe. With each passing day, the challenges and complexities continue to mount, requiring immediate attention and action. The urgency of the situation cannot be overstated as lives are at stake and the well-being of individuals and communities hangs in the balance. | wellcare world | healthcare

 

Given the dire situation regarding sea ice and sea surface temperatures, Arctic sea ice may fall dramatically later in the year.

 

Furthermore, emissions, ocean heat and greenhouse gas levels all keep rising. 
 
Co2 feb 2023 2 | dire situation gets even more dire | the dire situation that we face in the realm of health is becoming even more severe. With each passing day, the challenges and complexities continue to mount, requiring immediate attention and action. The urgency of the situation cannot be overstated as lives are at stake and the well-being of individuals and communities hangs in the balance. | wellcare world | healthcare
Carbon dioxide (CO₂) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, reached a record average daily high of 422.88 parts per million (ppm) on February 28, 2023, as illustrated by the above image and the image below. 
 
Co2 march 2023 | dire situation gets even more dire | the dire situation that we face in the realm of health is becoming even more severe. With each passing day, the challenges and complexities continue to mount, requiring immediate attention and action. The urgency of the situation cannot be overstated as lives are at stake and the well-being of individuals and communities hangs in the balance. | wellcare world | healthcare

It is remarkable for CO₂ levels to already reach record high levels this early in the year, given that CO₂ levels typically reach their annual maximum in May. This spells bad news for developments over the next few months. Keep in mind that carbon dioxide reaches its maximum warming some 10 years after emission, so we haven’t been hit by the full wrath of carbon dioxide pollution yet.

 
Possibly even worse is the rise in methane. The image below shows NOAA globally averaged marine surface monthly mean methane data from 2016, with methane reaching 1923.57 parts per billion (ppb) in November 2022. A moving average centered over 12 months is added to highlight the acceleration in the rise in methane.
 
Methane nov 2022 | dire situation gets even more dire | the dire situation that we face in the realm of health is becoming even more severe. With each passing day, the challenges and complexities continue to mount, requiring immediate attention and action. The urgency of the situation cannot be overstated as lives are at stake and the well-being of individuals and communities hangs in the balance. | wellcare world | healthcare
 
Accordingly, temperatures keep rising. An earlier analysis concludes that we have already exceeded the 2°C threshold set at the Paris Agreement in 2015.
 
These dire conditions spell bad news regarding the temperature rise to come, the more so since, on top of these dire conditions, there are a number of circumstances, feedbacks and further developments that make the outlook even more dire.
 
Circumstances that make the situation even more dire
 
Feb 27 2023 | dire situation gets even more dire | the dire situation that we face in the realm of health is becoming even more severe. With each passing day, the challenges and complexities continue to mount, requiring immediate attention and action. The urgency of the situation cannot be overstated as lives are at stake and the well-being of individuals and communities hangs in the balance. | wellcare world | healthcare
Firstly, as illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from NOAA, we’re moving into an El Niño.

 

It looks like it’s going to be a very strong El Niño, given that we’ve been in a La Niña for such a long time.

 
Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than half a degree Celsius, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA.
 
Enso bars. Jan 2023 | dire situation gets even more dire | the dire situation that we face in the realm of health is becoming even more severe. With each passing day, the challenges and complexities continue to mount, requiring immediate attention and action. The urgency of the situation cannot be overstated as lives are at stake and the well-being of individuals and communities hangs in the balance. | wellcare world | healthcare
[ click on images to enlarge ]
 
Temperature anomalies can be very high during an El Niño. The February 2016 temperature on land-only was 2.96°C above 1880-1920, and in February 2020, it was 2.79°C higher, as illustrated by the image below, created with screenshots taken on February 15, 2023. Note that 1880-1920 isn’t pre-industrial.
 
Land only temp anomaly | dire situation gets even more dire | the dire situation that we face in the realm of health is becoming even more severe. With each passing day, the challenges and complexities continue to mount, requiring immediate attention and action. The urgency of the situation cannot be overstated as lives are at stake and the well-being of individuals and communities hangs in the balance. | wellcare world | healthcare
 
Sunspots number | dire situation gets even more dire | the dire situation that we face in the realm of health is becoming even more severe. With each passing day, the challenges and complexities continue to mount, requiring immediate attention and action. The urgency of the situation cannot be overstated as lives are at stake and the well-being of individuals and communities hangs in the balance. | wellcare world | healthcare
Secondly, sunspots look set to reach a very high maximum by July 2025, as illustrated by the next two images on the right, adapted from NOAA.

 

Observed values for January 2023 are already well above the maximum values that NOAA predicted to be reached in July 2025.

 
If this trend continues, the rise in sunspots forcing from May 2020 to July 2025 may well make a difference of more than 0.25°C, a recent analysis found.
 
Solar flux | dire situation gets even more dire | the dire situation that we face in the realm of health is becoming even more severe. With each passing day, the challenges and complexities continue to mount, requiring immediate attention and action. The urgency of the situation cannot be overstated as lives are at stake and the well-being of individuals and communities hangs in the balance. | wellcare world | healthcare
Thirdly, the 2022 Tonga submarine volcano eruption did add a huge amount of water vapor to the atmosphere.
 
Since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas, this is further contributing to speed up the temperature rise.
 
A 2023 study calculates that the submarine volcano eruption near Tonga in January 2022, as also discussed at facebook, will have a warming effect of 0.12 Watts/m² over the next few years.
 
The image below, created with NOAA data, shows Annual Northern Hemisphere Land Temperature Anomalies and has two trends added. The blue trend, based on 1850-2022 data, points at 3°C rise by 2032. The pink trend, based on 2012-2022 data, better reflects variables such as El Niño and sunspots, showing that this could trigger a huge rise, with 3°C crossed in 2024. Anomalies are from 1901-2000 (not from pre-industrial).
 
Nh land temp anomaly 2022 | dire situation gets even more dire | the dire situation that we face in the realm of health is becoming even more severe. With each passing day, the challenges and complexities continue to mount, requiring immediate attention and action. The urgency of the situation cannot be overstated as lives are at stake and the well-being of individuals and communities hangs in the balance. | wellcare world | healthcare
 
Feedbacks and developments making things worse
 
Indeed, a huge temperature rise could be triggered, due to a multitude of feedbacks and further developments that could strongly deteriorate the situation even further.
 
On top of the water vapor added by the Tonga eruption, there are several feedbacks causing more water vapor to get added to the atmosphere, as discussed at Moistening Atmosphere.
 
Further feedbacks include additional greenhouse gas releases such as methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and methane, carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide from rapidly thawing permafrost on land.
 
The image below shows the Northern Hemisphere Ocean Temperature Anomaly, compared to 1901-2000. The pink trend, based on 1850-2022 data, shows that the Latent Heat Tipping Point (at 1°C) was crossed in 2022, but the red trend, based on 2007-2022 data, better reflects variables such as El Niño and shows both the Latent Heat Tipping Point and the Seafloor Methane Tipping Point (at 1.35°C) getting crossed in 2024. 

 

Nh ocean temp anomaly | dire situation gets even more dire | the dire situation that we face in the realm of health is becoming even more severe. With each passing day, the challenges and complexities continue to mount, requiring immediate attention and action. The urgency of the situation cannot be overstated as lives are at stake and the well-being of individuals and communities hangs in the balance. | wellcare world | healthcare
 
Ominously, November 2023 temperature anomalies are forecast to be at the top end of the scale for a large part of the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the tropicaltidbits.com image below. 
 
Nov 2023 | dire situation gets even more dire | the dire situation that we face in the realm of health is becoming even more severe. With each passing day, the challenges and complexities continue to mount, requiring immediate attention and action. The urgency of the situation cannot be overstated as lives are at stake and the well-being of individuals and communities hangs in the balance. | wellcare world | healthcare

 

Some developments could make things even worse and a huge temperature rise could unfold soon. The image below shows a polynomial trend added to NOAA globally averaged marine surface monthly mean methane data from April 2018 to November 2022, pointing at 1200 ppm CO₂e (carbon dioxide equivalent) getting crossed in 2027.

 

Methane rise 2 | dire situation gets even more dire | the dire situation that we face in the realm of health is becoming even more severe. With each passing day, the challenges and complexities continue to mount, requiring immediate attention and action. The urgency of the situation cannot be overstated as lives are at stake and the well-being of individuals and communities hangs in the balance. | wellcare world | healthcare
 
1200=co2e | dire situation gets even more dire | the dire situation that we face in the realm of health is becoming even more severe. With each passing day, the challenges and complexities continue to mount, requiring immediate attention and action. The urgency of the situation cannot be overstated as lives are at stake and the well-being of individuals and communities hangs in the balance. | wellcare world | healthcare

The Clouds Tipping Point, at 1200 ppm CO₂e, could be crossed and this on its own could result in a further rise of 8°C. As illustrated by the above image, this tipping point could be crossed as early as in 2027 due to forcing caused by the rise in methane alone. When further forcing is taken into account, this could happen even earlier than in 2027. 

 
On top of the February 28, 2023 daily average of 422.88 ppm for CO₂, methane can add 384.71 ppm CO₂e when using a 1-year GWP of 200 for NOAA’s 1923.57 ppb November 2022 methane mean.

 

While methane at higher altitude can reach even higher levels than NOAA’s marine surface data, adding NOAA’s November 2022 mean to 422.88 ppm CO₂ would leave just 392.41 ppm CO₂e for further forcing, before the Clouds Tipping Point would get crossed, as the image on the right illustrates.

 
Potential rise | dire situation gets even more dire | the dire situation that we face in the realm of health is becoming even more severe. With each passing day, the challenges and complexities continue to mount, requiring immediate attention and action. The urgency of the situation cannot be overstated as lives are at stake and the well-being of individuals and communities hangs in the balance. | wellcare world | healthcare
[ see the Extinction page ]
Further forcing comes from nitrous oxide and other greenhouse gases, while rises in other gases and further changes such as caused by sea ice loss and changes in aerosols can also speed up the temperature rise.
 
Changes in aerosols are discussed in earlier posts such as this post and this post. The upcoming temperature rise on land on the Northern Hemisphere could be so strong that much traffic, transport and industrial activity will grind to a halt, resulting in a reduction in cooling aerosols that are now masking the full wrath of global heating. These are mainly sulfates, but burning of fossil fuel and biomass also emits iron that helps photosynthesis of phytoplankton in oceans, as a 2022 study points out. 

 

Without these emissions, the temperature is projected to rise strongly, while there could be an additional temperature rise due to an increase in warming aerosols and gases as a result of more biomass and waste burning and forest fires.
 

The image on the right, from the extinction page, includes a potential rise of 1.9°C by 2026 as the sulfate cooling effect falls away and an additional rise of 0.6°C due to an increase in warming aerosols by 2026, as discussed in this post and earlier posts.

 
The image on the right indicates that the rise from pre-industrial to 2020 could be as much as 2.29°C. Earth’s energy imbalance has grown since 2020. Therefore, the rise up to now may be higher. 
 
Climate Tipping Points and further Events and Developments
 
The temperature could also be pushed up further due to reductions in the carbon sink on land. An earlier post mentions a study that found that the Amazon rainforest is no longer a sink, but has become a source, contributing to warming the planet instead; another study found that soil bacteria release CO₂ that was previously thought to remain trapped by iron; another study found that forest soil carbon does not increase with higher CO₂ levels; another study found that forests’ long-term capacity to store carbon is dropping in regions with extreme annual fires; another earlier post discussed the Terrestrial Biosphere Temperature Tipping Point, coined in a study finding that at higher temperatures, respiration rates continue to rise in contrast to sharply declining rates of photosynthesis, which under business-as-usual emissions would nearly halve the land sink strength by as early as 2040.
This earlier post also discusses how CO₂ and heat taken up by oceans can be reduced. A 2021 study on oceans finds that, with increased stratification, heat from climate warming less effectively penetrates into the deep ocean, which contributes to further surface warming, while it also reduces the capability of the ocean to store carbon, exacerbating global surface warming. A 2022 study finds that ocean uptake of CO₂ from the atmosphere decreases as the Meridional Overturning Circulation slows down. An earlier analysis warns about growth of a layer of fresh water at the surface of the North Atlantic resulting in more ocean heat reaching the Arctic Ocean and the atmosphere over the Arctic, while a 2023 study finds that growth of a layer of fresh water decreases its alkalinity and thus its ability to take up CO₂, a feedback referred to as the Ocean Surface Tipping Point.
 
Events | dire situation gets even more dire | the dire situation that we face in the realm of health is becoming even more severe. With each passing day, the challenges and complexities continue to mount, requiring immediate attention and action. The urgency of the situation cannot be overstated as lives are at stake and the well-being of individuals and communities hangs in the balance. | wellcare world | healthcare
[ from Blue Ocean Event 2022? – click on images to enlarge ]


The above image depicts only one sequence of events, or one scenario out of many. Things may eventuate in different orders and occur simultaneously, i.e. instead of one domino tipping over the next one sequentially, many events may occur simultaneously and reinforce each other. Further events and developments could be added to the list, such as ocean stratification and stronger storms that can push large amounts of warm salty water into the Arctic Ocean.

 
While loss of Arctic sea ice and loss of Permafrost in Siberia and North America are often regarded as tipping points, Antarctic sea ice loss, and loss of the snow and ice cover on Greenland, on Antarctica and on mountaintops such as the Tibetan Plateau could also be seen as tipping points. Another five tipping points are: 
– The Latent Heat Tipping Point
– The Seafloor Methane Tipping Point
 
Extinction
Altogether, the rise from pre-industrial to 2026 could be more than 18.44°C, while humans are likely to go extinct with a rise of 3°C, as illustrated by the image below, from an analysis discussed in an earlier post.
 
Extinct 650x140 new | dire situation gets even more dire | the dire situation that we face in the realm of health is becoming even more severe. With each passing day, the challenges and complexities continue to mount, requiring immediate attention and action. The urgency of the situation cannot be overstated as lives are at stake and the well-being of individuals and communities hangs in the balance. | wellcare world | healthcare
 
This should act as a warning that near-term human extinction could occur sooner than most may think. Indeed, when asked what could cause humans to go extinct, many may mention:

 

  1. asteroid strikes

  2. rampant pestilence, diseases, epidemics and pandemics

  3. war, murder and violence

  4. ecosystems and vegetation collapse, famine

  5. dehydration

  6. plastic pollution, spread of poisonous and toxic substances

  7. nuclear accidents, nuclear war or waste leakage

  8. outbreaks of antibiotic-resistant bacteria

  9. emerging new or re-emerging ancient microbes

10. bio-weapons and biological experiments gone out of hand

11. infertility, genetic degeneration, loss of genetic diversity

12. madness, cults, depression and suicide

13. polar shifts, earthquakes, landslides and tsunamis

14. Artificial Intelligence gone rogue

15. hostile aliens breeding predatory animals

More recently, climate change threats are mentioned such as:

16. destructive storms, flooding, fires and more extreme weather

17. hydrogen sulfide gas released from oceans

18. depletion of the ozone layer

19. co-extinctions, i.e. extinction of species that humans depend on, resulting in our own demise.

There may be more threats, but I think the biggest threat is:

20. temperature rise

In the video below, Edge of Extinction: Destination Destruction, Guy McPherson gives his view on our predicament.

 
 
Conclusion
 
The dire situation we’re in looks set to get even more dire, calling for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan and Transforming Society.

Links

• NSIDC – National Snow and Ice Data Center
https://www.nsidc.org

• NSIDC – Chartic interactive sea ice graph

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• Cryosphere Computing – by Nico Sun
https://cryospherecomputing.com

• Nullschool
https://earth.nullschool.net

• Climate Reanalyzer – sea ice based on NSIDC index V3
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/seaice

• NOAA – greenhouse gases – trends
• NOAA – Climate Prediction Center – ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

 

• NOAA – Monthly temperature anomalies versus El Niño
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202301/supplemental/page-4

• NOAA – Solar cycle progression
 
• NASA gistemp Monthly Mean Global Surface Temperature – Land Only
 
• NOAA – Annual Northern Hemisphere Land Temperature Anomalies 
 
• Tonga eruption increases chance of temporary surface temperature anomaly above 1.5 °C – by Stuart Jenkins et al. (2023)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01568-2
 
 
 
• Moistening Atmosphere

• Albedo, latent heat, insolation and more

 
• Latent Heat
 

• Blue Ocean Event

 

• Tropicaltidbits.com

 
• Methane keeps rising
 
• A huge temperature rise threatens to unfold soon

• The Clouds Feedback and the Clouds Tipping Point

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html

 
• Human Extinction by 2025?
 
• 2020: Hottest Year On Record
 

• The Importance of Methane in Climate Change

 

• The underappreciated role of anthropogenic sources in atmospheric soluble iron flux to the Southern Ocean – by Mingxu Liu et al. (2022)

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-022-00250-w

 

 

• How close are we to the temperature tipping point of the terrestrial biosphere? – by Katharyn Duffy et al. (2021)

 
• Overshoot or Omnicide? 
 

• Upper Ocean Temperatures Hit Record High in 2020 – by Lijing Cheng et al. (2021)

 

• Reduced CO₂ uptake and growing nutrient sequestration from slowing overturning circulation – by Yi Liu et al. (2022)

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01555-7

 

 

• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic

• Long-Term Slowdown of Ocean Carbon Uptake by Alkalinity Dynamics – by Megumi Chikamoto et al. (2023) 

• Ocean Surface Tipping Point Could Accelerate Climate Change

 

• When Will We Die?

 

• Edge of Extinction: Destination Destruction – video by Guy McPherson

 
 
 
 

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Technology aims to prevent falls for the Elderly

Women | technology aims to prevent falls for the elderly | "technology aims to prevent falls for elderly" refers to a project or initiative focused on utilizing technology to address and reduce the risk of falls among the elderly population. | wellcare world | healthcare

| Phyllis McGahan said using the watch has changed her life “immensely”

Predictive Risk Assessment for :

The Move More Live More project in Northern Ireland aims to prevent falls by the elderly by predicting risks that contribute to falls weeks ahead of time.  

The project, which involves Ulster University and other local institutions, involves wearing a smart watch that monitors activity levels, sleep, heart rate, and oxygen saturation, as well as providing predictive analytics to detect changes that can indicate an increased risk of falling. 

Vicki Caddy from the Age NI Charity said, “If there are any changes, the software will pick that up, even before the individual wearer would be aware that there was anything different.”

A newly-funded project is claiming that new technology can detect signs of falls by older people up to 32 days before they occur.

Falling is one of the most significant issues affecting the health and wellbeing of the older population.

The project, Move More Live More, involves Age NI, the Agency (PHA), the Southern Health and Social Care Trust and Ulster University.

Phyllis McGahan is 84 and loves nothing more than walking, but that was not always the case.

“I had a bad fall a couple of years ago,” she told BBC News NI.

Phyllis got a new knee 18 years ago and said it was never right, but signing up for a research project – with the help of a smartwatch and technology – changed her life.

“If I am sitting for a long time, it tells me to get up and move,” she said.

‘Stay stronger for longer’

Phyllis is one of the first participants in the project which is aimed at health education, prevention and intervention to reduce falls in the over 65s.

Vicki Caddy from Age NI said: “At Age NI we really understand what an impact falls can have for older people and for those around them.

130049684 elderlyfallsvickicaddy. Jpg | technology aims to prevent falls for the elderly | "technology aims to prevent falls for elderly" refers to a project or initiative focused on utilizing technology to address and reduce the risk of falls among the elderly population. | wellcare world | healthcare

Vicki Caddy of Age NI said that falls are not an inevitable part of growing older


Enhanced Fall Detection and Support through Smart Watch Monitoring Program

The program involves utilizing a smart watch to monitor various health indicators such as activity levels, sleep patterns, heart rate, and oxygen saturation (SpO2). Through the implementation of a monitoring platform and predictive analytics, any changes in these parameters that suggest an increased risk of falling can be detected.

“In the background there is a software programme which benchmarks someone’s normal patterns of activity, their normal amount of movement or heart rate or sleep in a day,” Ms Caddy said.

A software program establishes personalized benchmarks for each individual, enabling early detection of deviations even before the wearer notices any differences. If the alerts reach a concerning level, the data is transmitted to a call center where a dedicated individual contacts the watch wearer to assess their well-being, offer assistance or health advice, and evaluate any changes in movement.

If further help is required, the program has mechanisms in place to reintegrate the person into . This comprehensive approach ensures a safety net that combines technology with a human interface, providing enhanced fall prevention and support.

Mobile | technology aims to prevent falls for the elderly | "technology aims to prevent falls for elderly" refers to a project or initiative focused on utilizing technology to address and reduce the risk of falls among the elderly population. | wellcare world | healthcare

|The programme involves wearing a smart watch which monitors activity levels, sleep, heart rate and Sp02 (oxygen saturation).

“New Program Offers Technology-Based Fall Prevention for Elderly”

The program is open to individuals aged 65 and above who are interested in trying out the technology.

“We are offering this brand new opportunity to the people of Northern Ireland to be among the first to experience it. We have approximately 600 smart watches available, with space for up to 1,300 participants.”

According to the Public Health Agency, falls among the over-65 age group cost the healthcare system in Northern Ireland an estimated £375 million over a two-year period.

Sandra Aitcheson, Assistant Director of Nursing at the PHA, highlighted the significant impact of falls on older individuals, including fear, anxiety, social isolation, reduced mobility, and potential admission to nursing homes.

She emphasized that when speaking with older people, the fear of falling consistently ranks as one of their biggest concerns.

By Aileen Moynagh
{View Full Article|Read the Full Article|View the full article}

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